COUNTDOWN FOR U.S. PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

Presidential elections in the oldest democracy of the world always generate immense interest. Of the tenure of four years, the incumbent President gets hardly 3.5 years of tension free time to function, as invariably the last six months are consumed or devoted to campaigning for the next tenure. This time, however, the outgoing President Joe Biden was persuaded by his party to withdraw from contest and enable his second in command,Vice President, Kamala Harris to try her luck.The party felt that a strong person was needed to tackle Donald Trump in an aggressive way

For the second time in the history of the U.S.A., a woman will be in the fray. Earlier Hillary Clinton had contested against Donald Trump and lost. But this time the candidature of Kamala Harris is historic as for the first time a woman who is also black and South Asian, and she appears to have come so close to being elected as the 47th President of the U.S.A.

In an interview with Fox News of USA, Kamala Harris has candidly expressed that her Presidency will not be a continuation of Biden’s Presidency. She added that she would bring fresh and new ideas and represent a new generation of leadership.

Not only Biden was considered ineffective and fairly old but physically and mentally too he had become weak. When he faltered while getting down from a plane or while cycling, good deal of embarrassment was caused both to the administration and ruling Democratic party. His conduct during the meeting with Ukraine President and G-7 summit in Italy too was not up to expectations.

Withdrawal of candidature of President Joe Biden happened as late as July. That too after a disastrous performance by him vis a vis his opponent Donald Trump of the Republican party in a widely watched television debate. Trump scored well in view of his having worked as President earlier. So not only time but histrionics too favoured Trump.

Campaign Picks Up

As time passed by, campaigning picked up momentum. Both positive and negative factors were highlighted time and again.

The Harris camp got a solid boost when John Kelley, former Chief of Staff of White House under President Trump publicly stated “Trump exhibited Fascist tendencies in White House and also made admirable statements about Adolf Hitler”. It came at a time when Trump was leading by one percent. On the other hand, according to the Wall Street Poll, Trump was scoring over Harris by two percent( 47% and 45%).

Resort To Podcasts

In recent weeks members of both Harris and Trump camp, apart from addressing gatherings all over the country, have appeared on a series of popular podcasts in an effort to reach potential voters who don’t rely on traditional media.

Kamala Harris, who according to Trump “was slow and lethargic in answering even the easiest of questions ” went on to launch a blistering attack on Trump for threatening to use the military against internal enemies. She has spoken in a straight forward way that Trump tends to demean, belittle and diminish American people.

On another occasion Harris expressed the view that Trump was a threat to democracy, he was a vengeful dictator ,he was a Fascist and that he was becoming unstable, arrogant and boastful. Whatever calm and light hearted Kamala may be, Trump never fails in escalating his verbal attacks on her, due to his extreme views.

Issues Highlighted

While Trump during his campaign has highlighted issues, such as, economy, immigration, law & order and war in the Middle East ,for Kamala Harris focused areas were social justice, equality, women’s rights, health care, climate change and the future of Americans.

In Addition, following issues were hotly debated during their only T.V. debate : Small business, Sales Tax, Inflation, Covid outbreak, Trade deficit, Abortion rights, border security, utterances of former advisors of Trump, rising crime graph, cases against Trump, housing shortage and social security.

7 Swing States

There are seven key battleground or Swing States in the USA: Pennsylvania, Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina and Wisconsin. They control 93 vital Electoral College votes. 270 votes out of 538 are REQUIRED for becoming President.

Pennsylvania has maximum 19 votes while Nevada has the least number of 6. North Carolina & Georgia with 16 votes each and Michigan with 15 votes are also very crucial. Hence these states were given due importance and were visited time and again by both the candidates.

Cases against Trump

From the 1970’s until he became President in 2016, Donald Trump and his businesses were involved in over 4000 legal cases. He has been tried already for committing national security crime and election crime. Soon he has to face trial on federal charges pertaining to the 2020 election. Further, in 2025, he is expected to go to trial for federal charges concerning his handling of classified documents. He also has to face trial in the Riot case on U.S. Capitol, Jan,2021, New York Hush money case and Georgia 2020 election case.

In addition, a U.S. Special Counsel had reported after investigations that numerous links were identified between the Russian Government and Trump’s campaign for Presidency. To make matters worse, a Foundation headed by Trump was found to have committed fraud and misappropriated funds. It was ordered to be shut down.

FINAL ROUND

Though Trump has made all efforts to reach all sections of the electorate, say Whites, Blacks, Jews, Africans, Central Americans, Asians, Muslims etc., the fact is that he gets exhausted after addressing rallies and facing interviews. Probably due to it, he has cancelled second T.V. debate with his main opponent. Kamala Harris, perhaps looking for such an opportunity, was quick to comment that if he was exhausted during the campaign trail, it raises questions about his health. Is he fit for the toughest job in the world ? added Kamala.

Trump is appealing to Muslim voters and non American supporters in New York to vote for him as he feels that under him the economy and handling of immigration would be better. A bigger rally by him at Madison Square Garden in New York aimed at energizing his base, raising more funds and reaching undecided voters through the media. He was expecting to get a national audience but usual filth flowed about immigrants, people from Puerto Rico, Hispanics, Jews and the Palestinians. Trump built his business empire over here which made him a Tabloid and Reality T.V. star.

Tesla and SpaceX, C.E.O. Elon Musk, who has spent more than 10 million Dollars to boost Trump’s campaign , was also present along with many key supporters. Incidentally, New York has not voted for a Republican for President in 40 years. Even if Trump turns the tide this time, can he get rid of crime ridden people and immigrant gangs of New York ?

Talking of Kamala Harris, she has visited Philadelphia fourteen times thus far, knowing very well that Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan happen to be Swing states. Democrats are very positive about their victory in these states. Michelle Obama, former first lady, earlier made a concerted plea on behalf of Kamala at a well attended rally in Michigan.

Taking no risk or chance, Kamala is reported to have travelled even to non-battle ground states for major events aimed at driving a national message. She delivered her own ” closing argument” from the Ellipse in Washington on 30th October.

With passage of time, Kamala Harris has become confident and courageous. More and more rubbish about non-Americans emanating from the Trump camp may be beneficial to her. She may prove to be a clear choice.

TO CONCLUDE

According to a reputed news agency of the U.S.A., five key moments of the 2024 election campaign were: Trump’s Felony conviction, Joe Biden’s poor debate performance, assassination attempts on Trump, Biden’s withdrawal from the contest and Democratic party’s nomination of Kamala Harris.

Now that few hours have been left for the poll, both Harris and Trump have ramped up their campaigns. Intensification of canvassing is in full swing. As far as rating is concerned, according to the latest poll predictions (dated 29th Oct) Harris was leading Trump by a margin of 50% while Trump had secured 47%.

A difference of three percent is, however, immaterial. Race remains neck- and neck. ‘Close enough’ race will have to be decided by voters of seven swing states. Votes of Indian- Americans ( 2.6.million),who constitute the second largest immigrant group in the U.S.A. after Mexican Americans ,also may be crucial. It has been learnt that 61% of them would back Kamala Harris, a half Indian (her mother was Tamil Brahmin).

Both the candidates, however, will have to take full precaution of their phones as Typhoon, a Chinese hacker has already intruded into the U.S.A. to access phone data of candidates and senior officers. Iranian hackers too are being suspected. Any carelessness may lead to culling out wealth of information.

If Trump wins, the nature of American support and assistance for Ukraine may change. The USA may push Ukraine to agree to terms of a peace accord with Russia that will entail territorial concessions. Conflict of Israel with Hezbollah and Iran may also get further escalated.

(Alok K.Shrivastava was the Chief Secretary, Sikkim)