EMERGING POLITICAL CRISIS IN CANADA

Canada, the second biggest country in the world, having a population of barely 4.1 crores, of which eight lakhs are Sikhs, is in real crisis. Therefore, it is in news again. Justine Trudeau (JT), leader of Liberal Party has resigned as P.M. on 6th January after serving for eleven years. It was marred by confrontation with India and his known deference to elusive Khalistan. Situation had worsened with the resignation of Chrustia Freeland, Deputy P.M. and Finance Minister on 16th December.

Accusations Against India

J.T. has been also egged by one time ally Jagmeet Singh, leader of New Democratic Party recently. Trudeau, who was in the habit of instigating and creating controversies in regard to burning issues of India, has accused India of orchestrating a deadly campaign against Khalistanis. He had tried unsuccessfully to link India to the killing of Hardeep Singh Nijjar in June 2023, a charge bereft of any proof & substantiation.

Rise of Justin Trudeau

Political journey of J.T. began in April, 2013 when he became leader of Liberal Party. By summer of 2015, his campaign to become PM gathered momentum and he could actually grab power on 19 October 2015. His party secured 184 seats in the 330 member House of Commons.

In February 2018, his disastrous visit to India happened. It was marked by his frequent costume changes and presence of a convicted Khalistan extremist at a formal reception, organised by the Canadian High Commission in Mumbai.

In the 2019 elections he had some hiccup as the party was reduced to 157, a minority position.

Covid Handouts Go Waste

Lavish handouts during Covid-19 epidemic could not help him in getting a majority.The party could win only 160 seats.

In February 2022, he gave an authoritarian turn, imposing for the first time in the history of the country, a national emergency to suppress protests in Ottawa by the so-called Freedom Convoy.

By the end of the year, J.T. was trailing the Opposition Conservatives across polls.

Among the issues creating his notoriety was an unsustainable level of immigration leading to unaffordability of housing ,pressure on health and transport infrastructure as well as a fast rising graph of crime.

Dissension Within

At the end of 2024, J.T. had to face an internal revolt, which led to the shocking, if not unexpected resignation of former Deputy PM C Freeland.

Soon nearly 100 of his M.P.’s sought his early departure. The ruling party is now left with 153 seats in the Parliament having 338 seats. Parliament has been prorogued till 24th March and that may provide ruling party with two and a half months to complete the process which has been indicated by Suchit Mehra, President of Liberal party.

Successor To Trudeau

National board of the ruling party is slated to meet on 9 March. After a ‘robust’ and secure nation wide process, the Liberal Party is likely to choose a new leader and be ready to contest and ‘win’ the 2025 election.

Surprisingly, those seeking to enter the contest will have to declare their participation by 23rd January and submit an entrance fee of 350,000 Canadian Dollars (approx.242,900 American Dollars).Those wishing to vote will have to register by 27th January.

Requirement of a fee to contest is rather strange. Such a practice does not take place in India, officially or within a party. It may lead to the entry of unaccounted money in the election process.

J.T. ‘s successor will face a twin challenge of a severely tarnished party’s brand as well as the prospect of facing a Confidence vote almost immediately into their tenure.His successor will have to deal with a party that has become extremely unpopular over two years.

Contenders for PM Post

Among contenders to the post of P.M.were Chrustia Freeland, former Deputy PM Dominic LeBlanc, Anita Anand(Indo Canadian), Melanie Joly (may withdraw) and Phillipe Champagne.

Mark Carney, former Governor of Bank of Canada and of Bank Of England is also likely to enter the fray.

Showmanship Backfired

It seems Trudeau’s penchant for showmanship has backfired. It is felt that any leader succeeding him may have to work very hard to manage support of the parties in minority. In a reverse situation, elections could be conducted prior to October.

Charges of Conservatives

In the meanwhile, Opposition leader of Conservative Party, Pierre Poilievre has blamed Trudeau for ruining relations with India due to his unprofessional attitude. He further adds that the fellow is so incompetent and unprofessional that we are having major disputes with almost every major nation in the world, including India.Thus he has become a laughing stock in India. Poilievre has candidly indicated that he was ready to take on whosoever the Liberals put forward.

Like Father, Like Son

J.T.’s trusted leader of New Democratic Party, Jagmeet Singh was quick to react- “Liberals don’t deserve another chance, no matter who is the leader.”

Pierre Trudeau, father of J.T. came to power in 1968 and was in a position to lead Canada for 16 years. He opened doors for immigrants.It has been learnt that he was often compared to John F.Kennedy.

Tariff Threat of Trump

It may be pertinent to note that after his victory in November election, Donald Trump had threatened to impose a 25% tariff on Canada(and Mexico) due to perceived flow of illegal immigrants into the U.S., along with Fentanyl, the deadly drug. If Trump moves ahead with his plans on Canadian goods, then they would become a lot more expensive. Trump has further threatened tariffs on Canada if the latter does not enhance border security.

Trudeau subsequently met Trump at his Florida extra lavish residence MAR -A-LAGO at the end of November but the latter has not relented on his tariff threat. Rather, he has repeated it again saying there could be substantial tariffs.

Question that arises – Was it necessary for a serving PM to call on a President-elect ?

Trump On Canadian Sovereignty

Justin Trudeau has publicly rebuffed Donald Trump’s assertion that it should become America’s 51st State. In a post, he has said “There isn’t a snowball’s chance in hell that Canada would become a part of the U.S.”.

He further stated that we are not American, rather, Canadians are proud of being Canadians. Trump’s utterances are mere distraction tactics.

The leader of Conservative Party of Canada, Pierre Poilievre, has also posted a rebuttal that “Canada will never be the 51st State. We are a great and independent country”.

Let us hope that J.T., during his remaining months in office, concentrates on the U.S. and other issues of concern , rather than continuing his unjustified tirade against India, for, India, being the fifth largest economy will be too formidable and difficult for him to handle.

Who Will Succeed Trudeau ?

It has been gathered that a successor to J.T. will be named by 9th March. He will have to prepare sincerely for the No Confidence Motion towards the end of March. Dominic LeBlanc, the Finance Minister in the meanwhile, has opted out of the party leadership race. Former Deputy PM Chrystia Freeland could still emerge as the main leadership contender if she chooses to run.The Indo- Canadian M.P. Chandra Arya too has thrown his hat into the ring. Earlier, the name of another Indo-Canadian Anita Anand was making the rounds.

Cases Against Indians

The new Prime Minister shall have to take interest and speed up the case against four Indians-Karan Barar, Kamalpreet Singh, Karanpreet Singh and Amandeep Singh, arrested in connection of murder of H.S. Nijjar in June, 2023. According to a spokesman for the British Columbia Prosecution Service, the case is now proceeding by way of direct indictment. It means the accused will not have a preliminary inquiry but will instead proceed directly to trial.That is anticipated to be a fairly lengthy period of pre-trial applications, given the complexity of the case. As on date, only one appearance took place before the Supreme Court on November18. Second appearance is expected only on 14 February, 2025.

Had it been India, such a long gap would not have taken place. Moreover, activist advocates and journalists too continue to keep a close track of such developments of international ramifications.

Normalisation of Indo-Canadian Relations ?

In addition, Govt. of India must put diplomatic pressure on new PM of Canada to expedite their inquiry to resolve the vexed issue of Kaniska Air crash. It has lingered on and on.

Cases of Dalla and Landa, both Canadian citizens involved in criminal cases too need to be expedited on priority.

To conclude, it may be in the interest of both the countries if diplomatic links at the level of High Commissioner are restored soon. Also Canada will have to take care in putting an end to nefarious activities, such as, audio and video surveillance of staff of the Indian Embassy.

Last but not the least, a check on the activities of Sikh terrorists ,still in large number on the Canadian soil, will have to be ensured ,as in the words of Ujjal Dosanjh, former P.M. of British Columbia, due to “liberal”policies of J.T., separatist movement has become a major Canadian problem.

(The author is former Chief Secretary of Sikkim)