CRISIS IN BANGLADESH

Atal Bihari Vajpayee, former P.M. was correct in stating ‘You can change your friends but not neighbours’. It was true during his lifetime and cannot be negated even now.

Gradually India’s neighbours are being cajoled to display latent or manifest hostility towards it. Latest neighbour being Bangladesh, a country carved out of Pakistan with Indian support. Erstwhile East Pakistan became Bangladesh because West Pakistan did not permit Awami League to form government in East Pakistan, despite their victory in all the seats. East Pakistanis naturally rebelled against West Pakistan Army.

They were led by Mukti Vahini, trained by BSF and Indian Army.Large scale migration of people into India was also witnessed, compelling India to impose a Refugee tax.Bangladesh too had to face the problem of refugees later. One million Rohingya refugees from Myanmar are staying in Coxbazar District for seven years adding to the burden of country.

REGIME CHANGES FREQUENT

Bangladeshis were feeling contended subsequent to getting liberated from Pakistan. But peace and amity proved a short lived affair. Before Bangbandhu Mujibur Rahman could streamline the country, he was assassinated alongwith a few family members & close associates. Instead of a democratic set up, therefore, the country had Army rule atleast thrice. It had 13 Presidents and 10 Prime Ministers thus far. Khaleda Zia of Bangladesh National Party became Prime Minister twice while last P.M. Sheikh Hasina of Awami League had this distinction five times. But it may be noted that last parliamentary elections were boycotted by major opposition parties and that complains regarding rigging were rampant.

PROTEST OF JUNE-JULY, 2024

Current round of protests began from resentment over a quota system that saw 56 % of government jobs reserved for various group’s including 30% for the descendants of freedom fighters. Resentment got accelerated in June in response to Supreme Court reinstating a 30% quota, thus reversing the decision of the government in response to the 2018 Bangladesh quota reform movement.

Brutal crackdown and killing of students and politicians was witnessed. By July end, protests intensified into a mass movement against Hasina government. It ultimately led to her resignation and departure for India. After her arrival at Hindon Airport she was shifted to an unspecified location.

As per Human Rights Watch, an NGO, approximately 3000 persons were killed but the Government put these figures at 875.It painted a very bad picture of Hasina Government. It was reported that media coverage was censored and hospitals were told to under report the casualties. Reporters Without Borders too felt that Hasina had become too close to India at the cost of sovereignty of her country.

Amnesty International called for independent inquiry into the killings of students, opposition leaders and civilians.

MAIN CAUSES OF UNREST

Religious polarisation has taken place in the country leading to political instability. Side by side, rise in unemployment and prices angered the common man. Thus protests against quota system in government jobs, in no time, evolved into anti-government demonstrations. Both Police and Army appeared reluctant to enforce law and order. Hindus were a soft target, so, violence against them intensified.

It has been also observed that Hasina government was harsh in crushing the students. Also it was gathered that key issues -education, health and employment were ignored. Opposition parties took full advantage of resentment factor which led to downfall of Hasina Government in just 45 minutes on 5th August. She had no option but to seek refuge in India.

EFFECT ON TWO COUNTRIES

Right from beginning India is having close geographic and economic ties with Bangladesh.

It is not that only Bangladesh is going to suffer in the changed political circumstances. Immediate impact over curtailment of exports has already happened especially in Garment and textile sector which not only contributed to 85 % of exports of Bangladesh but Indians too are suffering as 25% of these units are owned by them.

Nothing has been heard about impact on Jute (Golden fibre) industry, another major activity in Bangladesh. Afterall, Bangladesh happens to be world’s second largest producer of Jute after India. Products such as, Jute yarn, cloth, bag, rope and Jute handicraft products have a big market in USA, which incidentally is largest consumer of these.

Also bi-lateral trade between two countries is bound to be impacted as Bangladesh was the largest trade partner of India in the sub continent.

TRANSPORT SECTOR

Transport sector in India has already suffered badly as Bangladesh was a huge market for Indian goods. Prior to unrest, about one thousand trucks would go to Bangladesh daily as opposed to 125 trucks from Nepal. More than 1300 trucks from India are reportedly stranded in Bangladesh due to agitation. Negative fallout of it is bound to be seen on Siliguri, Guwahati and Kolkata markets.

ROAD & RAIL CORRIDOR

Road and Rail corridor to and from North East India through Bangladesh shall have a setback as distances had reduced considerably as a result of rapid strides made during the Hasina regime. Investment by India for creating and improving infra structure in Bangladesh was also huge.

SECURITY MATTERS

There is also going to be loss of a key partner for India specifically in regard to suppressing terrorism in India. Useful intelligence about Islamic, Assam and North East terrorists and drug trafficking may not be shared now. Security concerns of India may also increase. Earlier Pak I.S.I. was very active inside Bangladesh during Khaleda Zia’s term but the Hasina government with the help from India eliminated these elements. Their leaders were either arrested or deported. With the change in government in Bangladesh, re-emergence of terror camps of I.S.I. may not be ruled out.

In the post-5th August situation, people of Bangladesh think of India as an ally of Hasina, hence, it may further strain relations with India.

THE U.S.A. FACTOR

Policy of USA towards Bangladesh is also likely to change. It has come to notice that USA was instrumental in placing Muhammad Yunus as Chief Advisor. Hence, President Joe Biden refrained from making comment on changed situation in Bangladesh. President elect Donald Trump has, nonetheless, expressed concern and sympathies with Hindus in Bangladesh. Sheikh Hasina was also quick in conveying congratulations to him upon his victory.

According to Dr. Bharat Barai, one leader of Hindus, “‘Bangladesh will approach Trump and U.S. Congress for imposing economic restrictions on Bangladesh. He is also likely to act against Bangladesh over the issue of torture of Hindus.”

DISCRIMINATION AGAINST HINDUS

It has become very risky for the Hindus to live, survive and earn livelihood in Bangladesh. In the event of further escalation in Islamist extremism, Hindus will be threatened time and again alongwith other religious minorities.

According to Ms. Tulsi Gabbard, a former member of U.S. Congress, she had introduced a resolution that called for protection of minorities and religious minorities in Bangladesh. Giving a background, she has stated that systematic targeting of Hindus in Bangladesh began in March 1971 and between five to ten thousand Hindu students were killed in one of the hostels of Dhaka in one night. The Genocide that continued for ten months, led to killing of two to three million Hindus and about ten millions of them flew away. They were robbed of their belongings, land, houses and shops. The Islamist prosecution of Hindus did not end with Independence of Bangladesh. It continued.

In early nineties, Hindus comprised of 33% population of the country. At present it has come down to just 8%.

Already many Hindu temples have been attacked and Hindus have faced over two thousand attacks since 4th August. Durga Puja celebrations were also a low key affair. But both Chief Adviser and Nahid Islam, Adviser, I & C have indicated that Puja celebration in 32,000 Puja Mandaps was held peacefully.

In a most shameful incident, however, a crown presented by Indian P.M.to a deity in a temple of Dhaka was stolen. Same is yet to be recovered.

To add further insult, Bangladesh’s Attorney General has advocated for constitutional changes including removal of the term SECULAR, given that 90 % of country’s population comprised of Muslims.

DEVELOPMENTS OF RECENT PAST

On 10th November Bangladesh yet again became tense as a planned protest rally by Awami League in Dhaka was thwarted. It was learnt that activists of Anti-discrimination Students Movement (ADSM) aggressively hunted for Sheikh Hasina supporters. Also activists of BNP and Jamaat-e-Islami party filled up much of space in Dhaka streets. Awami League stated that many of their supporters were detained.

EXTRADITION OF SHEIKH HASINA

Bangladesh Interim government is going to seek assistance of Interpol to repatriate Sheikh Hasina and other’ fugitives’ to face trial for alleged crimes against humanity. Hasina and her party leaders face accusations of ordering brutal suppression of the ADSM resulting in several casualties in June and July 2024. As per Md. Yunus, 753 persons were killed and thousands injured in protests. These were considered crimes against humanity, thus a genocide. Over 60 complains have been filed against Hasina and her party leaders with the International Crimes Tribunal (ICT). Tribunal was incidentally created by Sheikh Hasina in 2010 and following its judgements, six leaders of Jamaat -e – Islami and BNP were executed.

After departure of Sheikh Hasina, it is a fluid political situation in Bangladesh. Return of radical Islamist forces, such as, Jamaat-e-Islami and BNP are already threatening country’s secular governance system. Further rise in Islamic extremism will increase threat quotient of Hindus.

REFORMS & ELECTION

Three and a half months have elapsed since Sheikh Hasina left and a group of students and opposition politicians took over .By 8th August, Mohammad Yunus assumed the ‘position’ of Chief Adviser.Subsequently,14 other Advisers were appointed. Within a month, the ‘Interim’ Government’s talk about reforms began making round. According to a reliable source of the new Government,’ Reforms’ were to be published soon after seeking proposals from political parties on various issues.

Mahfuj Alam, Special Assistant to Md. Yunus has indicated that these were being discussed with political parties. As far as duration of Interim Govt was concerned, that was to depend on reform proposals of political parties. But in the opinion of Alam, no party had questioned the tenure of the government. Political parties are learnt to be willing to be patient for the sake of bringing reforms in Bangladesh.

In the meanwhile, Md. T. Hossain, Foreign Affairs Adviser has contended that in view of mounting of cases (60 already identified) against Sheikh Hasina, they could consider seeking her extradition but that would create an embarrassing situation for India. Indian government knew it and they will take care of it. But Interim Government was very unhappy about the way the statements were coming from Hasina. Md. Yunus had conveyed it to Indian Envoy Pranay Verma. Regarding the possibility of elections, he said that there will be more clarity on the timelines in “coming days”. All Advisers were busy in bringing back normalcy, he added.

VIEWS OF B.N.P. PARTY

Mirza F.I .Alamgir, Secretary General of BNP party sounds somewhat optimistic. As per him, a new chapter in the ties of two countries should begin with the extradition of Sheikh Hasina. Her continued stay could further damage bi-lateral relations. If India does not return Hasina, bi-lateral ties will worsen. His party was prepared to move past previous differences and was ready to collaborate. BNP would never permit any activity on Bangladesh soil which may threaten India’s security. He however, added that Adani electricity deal signed during the time of Hasina will be reviewed as it was putting tremendous pressure on Bangladeshis.

Evaluation of all Indian projects has begun as per information shared by Adviser (Information & Communication).

On the issue of extradition of Hasina, Government of India has kept quiet so far. India has maintained that it is only a request which was not binding. Md. Yunus has tried to put pressure on India through U.S.A. but with victory of Trump, their hopes will be dashed for the time being. Afterall, Trump in a video message has clearly stated that he was a big fan of Hindus and India and that Hindus were being tortured in Bangladesh.

TO SUM UP

Bangladesh is in bad shape both from polity and economy points of view as also threats to its social fabric. On international front, China may increase its influence over Bangladesh by offering lucrative deals to interim regime, similar to what it gave to Sri Lanka, Myanmar and Maldives.

India, so far, is maintaining a cautious approach, closely monitoring the situation in Bangladesh while adopting a wait and watch strategy. India, at the same time, needs to bolster its existing security measures along 4,156 kms long border with Bangladesh as also in locations with significant Bangladeshi expatriate population. Also India must closely monitor both China and Pakistan, who could exploit present vulnerable situation in Bangladesh.

Seeing the fragile situation in Bangladesh, very recently, a cargo vessel from Karachi port arrived at Chittagong port, marking first ever direct maritime link between the two countries. So far, Pakistan had barred its government and private contractors from using vessels from India, Israel and Bangladesh. It shows softening of Pakistan’s stand towards Bangladesh due to change of guard in Dhaka.

It is anybody’s guess as to who will ultimately succeed !

(The writer is the former Chief Secretary of Sikkim)