Enduring Friendship with Russia
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What matters to India is its national interests and in pursuing them Russia still matters to India
Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s recent visit to Russia shortly after starting his third innings in office has disturbed the Western countries in general and the United states in particular. For them, India has no right to remain neutral in the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s outburst against Modi’s visit to Russia has been particularly intemperate. He has questioned India’s democratic credentials, though he himself, notwithstanding the blind support to him from the West, has a chequered record of postponing elections, banning the opposition and imposing censorship.
Even there are a quite a few critics in India who have questioned Modi’s decision to meet Putin, the leader of a declining Russia. They would like Modi to cultivate the West much more strongly than what is the case at the moment. They do not seem to be impressed with the concept of strategic autonomy that India, itself a rising global power, has been pursuing, that is, dealing with every global issue on its merits by taking the country’s national interests into account.
Most of these criticisms are simply absurd. What matters to India is its national interests and in pursuing them Russia still matters to India. Therefore, Modi has done well by visiting Moscow to resume the summit-level dialogue, take stock of the overall Indo-Russian ties and find ways to consolidate the recent gains in bilateral trade by balancing the highly skewed and unsustainable trade balance against India.
All told, though Russia may have lost its position as a superpower in Cold War equations, it is still a big power if one goes by any possible definition of the elements that constitute power. It is huge and possesses the largest landmass of the earth as a single country. It strategically abuts on Central Asia, China and Iran, an area of political, security and economic interests to India. Russia is endowed with enormous natural resources, technological capacities and trade potential. It still is the most important military power in the world after the United States.
Most significantly, Russia, perhaps, gives a higher priority to India in its foreign policy and strategic calculations than the United States or other power centres of the world, their acknowledgment of India’s rising importance notwithstanding.
Only in April, India had received the supply of the first batch of Igla-S Man Portable Air Defence Systems (MANPADS) to the Indian Army by Russia that is going to be deployed mostly in the areas bordering China. MANPADS, part of a larger deal for 120 launchers and 400 missiles, are the systems that enhance the Indian Army’s Very Short Range Air Defence (VSHORAD) capabilities, particularly in high mountainous terrain along the Line of Actual Control with China in the north and northeast. These are hand-held defence systems that can be operated by an individual or crew. They are designed to bring down low-flying aircraft and can also identify and neutralize air targets such as cruise missiles and drones.
India and Russia signed a contract for such launchers and missiles on November 14, 2023. The first batch, in that sense, came in just four months, which also happened to be when Russia was at war with Ukraine. As per the contract, an Indian company will make the rest of these systems in India through a Transfer of Technology (ToT) from Russia.
It is also worth noting that India has even deployed its three S-400 air defence missile squadrons procured from Russia along the borders with China and Pakistan. While one unit is looking at both China and Pakistan, one each has been earmarked for the China and Pakistan fronts.
Two more squadrons remain to be delivered; the delay has been attributed to the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Reportedly, the squadrons manufactured for the delivery to India were used by the Russians for their defence against Ukraine.
It is true that defence cooperation, which has been a key pillar of India-Russia ties for decades, is undergoing changes. But Russia still provides India with around 60 percent of its defence needs. Of course, the relationship is changing from a buyer-seller type to a partnership in joint production and co-development of military hardware.
Presently, India is producing SU30 MKI fighter aircraft and T90 tanks under Russian licenses. Two Indo-Russian joint ventures are co-producing Brahmos cruise missiles and AK203 rifles. Russian companies are now more than willing to participate in India’s ambitious Make in India programme, which aims at enhancing the production of military hardware indigenously.
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In fact, as India’s partner, Russia is always prepared to share its most sensitive and newest technological developments with India, which the United States and other Western nations have been reluctant to do.
The Brahmos missile system is a shining example of this type of collaboration. Russia leases its nuclear submarines to India. Russia has unhesitatingly cooperated with India in its march towards becoming a major space power.
Of course, India no longer considers Russia to be a great market, given the comparatively poor technology associated with its weapons. Even in military sales, the Russian attitude in going against the signed agreement on Admiral Gorshkov aircraft (India has rechristened it as Vikramaditya) carrier with regard to money and delivery schedule was not found exactly helpful.
Russia was also alleged to be noncooperative and nontransparent in developing the Fifth Generation Fighter Aircraft (FGFA), in which India had equally invested US $295 million for the preliminary designs.
However, despite all the hiccups, India and Russia signed an agreement in 2021 for an institutionalized structure headed by the defence ministers of both countries to oversee the issues around military and military-technical cooperation, including joint military exercises, co-development of advanced defence systems, and technology transfers, for the next 10 years (till 2031).
Even otherwise, India-Russia bilateral ties have grown stronger despite the war in Ukraine and the consequent move by Moscow to draw closer to Beijing. Two-way bilateral trade is supposed to have crossed USD 50 billion in 2023-24.
Russia has emerged as a top supplier of crude oil to India, particularly since the beginning of the Ukraine conflict. Russia is building six nuclear power plants in India, two of which have already been commissioned, and the other two are nearing completion.
Russia is cooperating with India on the human spaceflight program, Gaganyaan. Both India and Russia have also launched major programs in Artificial Intelligence and Quantum Computing. Besides, India has invested heavily in Russia’s hydrocarbon sector in Siberia and even North Russia.
As Indian foreign minister S Jaishankar has been consistently pointing out in recent months, the history of Indo-Russian ties can never be belittled, and Moscow will continue to remain one of Delhi’s India’s most valued allies for many more years to come.
As already pointed out, Russia never hesitates to transfer its most sophisticated technology to India. It is Russia that gives its nuclear submarines on lease to India. It is Russia that has unhesitatingly cooperated with India in its march toward becoming a major space power. It is Russia that has unhesitatingly established nuclear power stations in India, something that cannot be said of the United States even after the conclusion of the civilian nuclear deal. And it is Russia, which has provided the most vocal support for India becoming a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council.
Going by Russia’s “foreign policy doctrine”, it would “continue to build up a particularly privileged strategic partnership” with India. While talking of “the Eurasian continent,” the Russian doctrine talked of China as well as of India with equal emphasis. While it pointed out that “Russia aims at further strengthening the comprehensive partnership and the strategic cooperation with the People’s Republic of China,” it highlighted how “Russia will continue to build up a particularly privileged strategic partnership with the Republic of India with a view to enhance and expand cooperation in all areas on a mutually beneficial basis and place special emphasis on increasing the volume of bilateral trade, strengthening investment and technological ties, and ensuring their resistance to destructive actions of unfriendly states and their alliances.”
In fact, in my considered view, and I have argued this elsewhere, India is always a much more adored partner for Russia than China. Besieged with a growing problem of demographic decline, many Russian analysts fear that Siberia and its far east will soon be overrun by migrant Chinese labourers. This fear is genuine, as anybody familiar with Chinese history will admit that Chinese territorial claims all over Asia often followed its emigrants.
Besides, the history of China-Russia relations is not very inspiring for a long-term relationship in the future. Incidentally, three times that China formed an alliance with Russia — during the Qing Dynasty (1894), the Republic of China (1945), and the People’s Republic of China (1950)—none lasted long. The last—the Sino-Soviet Treaty of Friendship, Alliance, and Mutual Assistance in February 1950—could not prevent Russia from fighting a war with China in 1969.
It is true that the war in Ukraine has brought Russia closer to China, thanks mainly to the Western sanctions. This proximity, thus, is because of compulsions, not convictions. That explains why Russian scholars talk of “vigilant amicability” in Moscow’s relationship with Beijing so that Russia never becomes a junior partner of China. Russia will need to balance China, and in this game of balancing, it finds India as a critical partner.
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