Exit Poll Exposes Limitations of the Congress Party

Much as I have reservations about the Prime Minister on many an issue,I would like to be detached in my assessment. Our common.a dear friend and I had spoken about three weeks back, and I had told him then that the BJP/NDA would have a comfortable victory. The reasons are very obvious.

The exit polls do not reflect a tsunami — something photo journalist and another common friend ,Praveen Jain, had alluded to after his many trips to the hinterland on behalf of the print . What It reflects is the status quo. The BJP got 300+ seats last time. There has been no increase in their seat count in the north or the west and no severe loss (certainly not 20-30 seats in UP or Bihar as critics of Modi are alluding to. But there has certainly been a tsunami in the East and the South, which has added to their margin. if you take the four southern states together, they are the single largest party. This is indeed a tsunami. Again, something I had told my friend during our conversation.

Unfortunately, you can’t put together an alliance six months before the elections and expect to beat the BJP election machine, which is working 24×7 /365 days. You have to be on the ground and consistently fight your battle.

The BJP has again nationally got a bulk of the woman votes. It was the same case in 2019. Little attention was made since then to focus on this crucial 50% of the electorate and wean them away. The only women chief minister stayed away from the alliance. Another women head of a political party decided to go on our own. I am talking about Mamta Banerjee and Mayawati.

Again like it or not, the BJP has been working on the ground relentlessly and for years. That is precisely what they have been doing in West Bengal. If the BJP gets the numbers that are being spoken about, it has happened over a decade and not overnight .unless the opposition leadership is willing to put in the hard yards and hold their leaders accountable, the BJP will continue to rule; if not Modi, it will be a Yogi or an Amit Shah or Shivraj Singh Chauhan or Nitin Gadkari. I can go on with other numbers and names.

Kanhaiya Kumar would have sure shot won from Begusarai this time. But it did not suit Tejasswi to have a bright young opponent on his turf. he played spoil sport last time by inserting an RJD candidate in the fray and he threatened to do the same this time unless the seat was given to the communists? Kanhiya lamented that he had been injected into the Delhi contest just three weeks before the elections with the local Congress party ranged against him.whatever the fizz, he knew what the consequences would be.

The hard fact is that the opposition does not seem to have a strategy or roadmap. Just abusing Adani Ambani and Modi cannot win elections. I have a sneaking suspicion that the Congress will end up with the lowest ever count in the Lok Sabha, but the leadership will certainly not be held accountable .so what do you do?

Blaming the EVM will not help. Telangana / Himachal / Karnataka / West Bengal / Tamil Nadu have all been done with the same EVMs. And the BJP lost in all these states.

Answerability, responsibility of focus, roadmap, well laid out program and ability to sweat are very important to win elections. One has to try all these out for a couple of years is the only answer to take on the BJP election machinery. I do not see anybody in the opposition – at least the present opposition – having the capacity or the intelligence to do that.

It is the same BJP, which had two seats in 1980. in the 44 years, since then they have been in command in the opposition for close to a decade and in command as a ruling party for a full decade. That is a remarkable performance for a party that has been an existence for only 44 years. Let me just give you one example of how the Congress has lost the narrative: It is the Congress party that opened the lock of the ram janmabhoomi, the Congress allowed the Aarti to take place. but it is BJP which ran away with the narrative and today owns that story . This desire to be half and half and everything to everyone will never get them any results. They have to calibrate their ideological moorings And then be prepared to stick to it and build a narrative around it. I have no idea what the Congress narrative is today ? What do they represent? But one thing I’m certain, if there is a policy which is enunciated by the BJP, the Congress is sure to oppose it. Would that be the right approach or would annunciating your own ideology/ideas/programs/policy be the right approach.